Despite the Japanese government’s issuance of its first-ever Megaquake warning in August, reinsurers are well-positioned to absorb losses from major events, including a large Japanese earthquake, according to J.P. Morgan’s latest report.
The warning, issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in early August and lifted on August 15th, has heightened concerns about earthquake risks in Japan, which remains one of the top five global perils for property and casualty insurers.
For context, the 2011 Japanese earthquake, which registered 9.1 on the Richter scale, is one of the costliest insured events ever recorded.
In 2023, Swiss Re estimated that if an earthquake similar to the 1923 Kanto quake occurred today, it could cost the industry between $130 billion and $150 billion, even with advancements in building resilience.
The JMA stated, “if a major earthquake were to occur in the future, strong shaking and large tsunamis would be generated. The likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period of time.”
J.P. Morgan analysts believe that heightened risk perception for catastrophes could support pricing for reinsurers, even with strong YTD results. They expect that, given the increased focus on Japanese earthquake risk and the anticipated active Atlantic hurricane season, pricing should not collapse even if the loss environment remains relatively benign for the rest of 2024.
J.P. Morgan also noted that, “Even if a large Japanese earthquake were to occur, the claims burden should be manageable for European reinsurers.”
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