In an interview with Reinsurance News around the annual meeting of the reinsurance industry in Monte Carlo, Charles Goldie, Chief Underwriting Officer at MS Reinsurance, said he expects the January 1st, 2026, renewals to resemble last year’s, while noting two trends in this cycle that are playing out differently: the commoditisation of tail property cat and a lack of new market entrants.
Goldie stated that, for the most part, he expects a renewal period very similar to January 1st, 2025.
“The macro reinsurance cycle is following a familiar pattern, with most reinsurers now eager to grow their portfolios at relatively stable rates and terms but showing minimal appetite to grow if rates and terms deteriorate significantly,” he said.
He highlighted two trends that he is watching closely in this cycle, which seem to be playing out differently than in past cycles.
“The first was the rapid drop in pricing for property catastrophe business at 7/1 – particularly for the well-modelled tail risks. The ease with which capital can now enter and exit this space is serving to commoditize tail property cat risks,” he said.
“The second is the lack of start-up carriers. In past cycles, some of the capacity shortfall has been absorbed by start-ups funded by new money. In this cycle, the number of startups has been quite limited, consolidation is evident, and even some of the existing players seem to be reluctant reinsurance players. All of which reduces the number of players in the game.”
Goldie explained that the “commoditisation” of property catastrophe has been developing for over 20 years and continues to evolve. 25 years ago, capital was scarce; if investors wanted to take property cat risk, the only way to do so was to put capital into a rated and regulated carrier, which tied up capital for years. As a result, dedicated capacity was limited and demanded very high returns.
He continued, “Today, through various collateralized vehicles, cat bonds and other innovations, investors looking to take catastrophe risk are able to access the market without having to tie up capital – and as a result there is no shortage of capacity for buyers of tail property cat coverage.
“The commoditization is an ongoing process – today, there are still many fee-takers between the buyers of risk and many of the ultimate assumers of risk. But time will thin out that group – there can only be so many intermediaries in the chain.”
Goldie also explained why new entrants to the reinsurance market have been scarce this cycle.
“Classic international non-life reinsurance seems to have all of the qualities that investors in 2025 hate,” he said. “It ties up capital for long periods of time and has the potential to create significant earnings volatility. The relatively low valuations attached to reinsurance balance sheets leave new investors concerned about checking into a Hotel California situation. And certainly, some reluctant current owners of reinsurance assets feeling like they are already there.”
Despite this, Goldie emphasised that reinsurance remains a critical part of the insurance ecosystem, offering capital support, balance sheet stability, and risk sharing to a broad variety of insurers. A long-term committed reinsurer can provide attractive returns to shareholders while helping clients achieve their business goals.
When asked what this means for reinsurance buyers, Goldie noted that most multi-line reinsurers want to grow at current rates and terms but will pull back if presented with a more adverse market.
“Reinsurance buyers will continue to face a market that is expensive relative to the past decade – but will have choices in which reinsurers they choose to trust as their partners,” he said.
Goldie stressed that every buyer is different, though many remember 2023, when they were left short on capacity by their perceived partners, as a reminder to examine their choices more closely.
“Most of the buyers we talk to look for partners that participate more broadly across their business and offer continuity in their coverage. The nuances of this cycle – with some reinsurers in the catastrophe market operating more as a broker than as a true risk partner, and with questions about ownership commitment to the business – make the challenge of choosing reinsurers even more difficult,” he said.
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